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Heading into his third NFL campaign, Pollard remains at the top of the ‘What If?” list among running backs. As the backup to a workhorse like Ezekiel Elliott, Pollard’s only chances for big performances come when Zeke is banged up or the Cowboys are blowing out the opposition, and there were no such opportunities in the latter category in 2020. Pollard did start Week 15 against the 49ers with Elliott on the sidelines though, and he turned just 18 touches into 132 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. The Memphis product has breakaway speed in the open field while flashing the toughness and burst necessary to gain yards between the tackles. He’s also proven to be more than adequate as a pass catcher, and while he came into the league as a liability in pass protection, Pollard has shown enough improvement in that area to earn the trust of the coaching staff and see some work on third downs. Elliott’s massive contract, and accompanying cap hit, probably lock him into the top spot on the depth chart through 2022. Barring a serious injury to Elliott, Pollard may have to make do with single-digit touches most weeks, despite his clear upside should he ever secure the lead role.

Selected in the fourth round of last year’s draft, Pollard wasn’t expected to be much more than a gadget player while stuck behind Ezekiel Elliott. The rookie quickly proved he could make a big impact when he got the chance, erupting for 128 yards and a touchdown on only 16 touches Week 3 against the Dolphins. He later topped that performance Week 15 against the Rams, piling up 143 yards and a score on 14 touches. Those two games accounted for more than half his rushing yards for the season, however, as he saw six touches or fewer in half of the Cowboys’ games. Pollard’s blend of speed, elusiveness and surprising power made him tough to bring down, and among backs who got at least 80 carries last season, he led the league with 3.6 yards per carry after contact. He also flashed some ability as a receiver, increasing the ways in which offensive coordinator Kellen Moore could get him involved. As long as Elliott is healthy, Pollard doesn’t figure to take many carries, but the second-year pro is at least capable of efficient production when game flow works in his favor.

Selected in the fourth round out of Memphis, Pollard ran a 4.3 40-yard dash at his pro day and has a golden opportunity to win the No. 2 RB job in Dallas given the lack of an established backup behind Ezekiel Elliott, who is holding out for a new contract. Pollard’s college resume suggests he’s a better fit as a return man and gadget player than a full-time running back, however, and he may be a bigger threat to Tavon Austin’s roster spot than a true handcuff for Zeke. Still, if he shows his big-play potential in the preseason, new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore may try to find ways to get the ball in his hands.

Calling all bettors! Utilizing Pro Football Network’s Mock Draft Simulator, we’ve developed the following NFL mock draft for Round 1. The picks in this mock are decided based on the highest-percentage user-selected players for each franchise in the past seven days.

When analyzing these selections, we will examine the current betting odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook and see how MDS fans and users compare to the current odds.

1) Carolina Panthers (From CHI): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

C.J. Stroud has emerged as the presumed No. 1 overall draft pick since the Carolina Panthers traded for the first selection. We look on course for the 2023 NFL Draft to be the fifth time in six years — and the seventh time in nine years — that a quarterback comes off the board first. However, his odds of being No. 1 are only -185, and with all of the main contenders taking to the field for their pro days this week, the landscape could yet shift.

2) Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

In betting circles, Bryce Young is the second-most favored QB to go No. 1 with +125 odds, followed only remotely closely by Anthony Richardson (+475). The next-best odds are Will Levis with +4000. So yeah, that’s a steep drop-off.

As for the No. 2 pick, it’s a two-man race between Young (-165 odds) and Stroud (+150, in the event he doesn’t go No. 1). Richardson is sitting at +1200, suggesting that if Carolina doesn’t want him at No. 1, then Richardson is an even greater long shot to join the Texans at No. 2.

This positions Young comfortably as the clear front-runner for the No. 2 spot.

3) Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama

Will Anderson Jr. has -400 odds of being the first defensive player taken in the draft. The next best odds are +600. In other words, there’s no strong competition here. Anderson is the clear-cut favorite, and the defense-needy Cardinals (second-most points surrendered in 2022) are a logical destination.

4) Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

As referenced above, Anthony Richardson is an intriguing wild card in this draft, with better odds of going No. 1 than No. 2, despite being the overall No. 3 QB in betting circles.

MORE: NFL Draft Odds To Be No. 1 Pick in 2023 — Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, Will Anderson Jr., or Someone Else?

DraftKings has an interesting wager on which QB will be selected first: Richardson (-235) or Levis (+190). It’s a surprisingly narrow odds gap given their much wider chasm among the betting markets for who will be drafted No. 1 or No. 2 overall.

DraftKings also highlights the Colts as the most likely destination for Richardson, with +175 odds.

5) Seattle Seahawks (From DEN): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

While Anderson is the strong favorite to be the first defender drafted, Jalen Carter is tied for second with +600 odds. It’s an interesting situation for those wagering on Anderson vs. Carter. If the defensive line is the target for the Seahawks, it could put the likes of Tyree Wilson and Myles Murphy in the frame if they are unsure about Carter.

6) Detroit Lions (From LAR): Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

The Lions have made several offseason moves so far to bolster a defense that showed dramatic improvements in the second half of last season. PFN’s MDS selections have them potentially taking Christian Gonzalez with their first Round 1 pick at No. 6 overall.

Gonalez is the odds-on front-runner (-190) to be the first cornerback taken. However, his +5000 odds of being the first defender taken are shockingly poor — unless we consider the more pressing defensive needs of some teams picking ahead of Detroit.

7) Las Vegas Raiders: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

One of the closest betting battles in this draft concerns the first offensive lineman selected. Paris Johnson Jr. (+150) is narrowly behind Peter Skoronski (+120). PFN’s MDS users apparently like what Johnson can bring to the Raiders, and his longer odds make him an intriguing option for bettors.

8) Atlanta Falcons: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

Beyond the biggest defensive names, no one else has good odds of being the first defender taken in this year’s draft. Myles Murphy is in the next best tier, but with +10000 odds, “next best” is relative.

9) Chicago Bears (From CAR): Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

One of the most fascinating MDS decisions is the selection of Murphy ahead of Tyree Wilson. Wilson is tied with Carter for the second-best odds (+600) of being the first defender drafted (after Anderson).

10) Philadelphia Eagles (From NO): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Devon Witherspoon is part of the “next best” group of first defenders drafted, with +10000 odds of going before Anderson, Carter, Wilson, etc. More pointedly, he’s narrowly behind Gonzalez for the first cornerback selected, owning bullish +165 odds. However, if you believe Witherspoon could be the first corner taken, his odds of +180 to be selected ahead of Gonzalez offer the better value.

11) Tennessee Titans: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern

While Peter Skoronski (+120 odds) is just a bit in front of Paris Johnson (+150) in betting markets, he seems to be noticeably behind in the user-generated Mock Draft Simulator data.

12) Houston Texans (From CLE): Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

The rebuilding Texans have two of the first 12 draft picks, giving them the luxury of pairing a promising QB with a promising WR to help jumpstart its anemic passing attack.

MORE: 2023 NFL Draft Big Board

In this scenario, the big question is whether Houston would take Quentin Johnston (+275 odds of being the first WR drafted) or Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-130) odds. The market suggests Smith-Njigba has a meaningful edge, but the MDS data suggests differently.

DraftKings also highlights the Texans as the most likely destination for Johnston, with +600 odds. The Patriots are No. 2 with +650 odds, and not surprisingly, New England is scheduled to pick two spots later.

13) New York Jets: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

Broderick Jones is projected by betting markets as the third-most likely offensive lineman to be taken first, with +450 odds. The Jets are prime candidates to beef up their line. A key question might be who’s available when the 13th pick arrives.

14) New England Patriots: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

As referenced above, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the front-runner to be the first WR taken. After Johnston, the next most-favored WR is Jordan Addison (+550 odds).

It’s fascinating that the Texans are favorites to draft not only Johnston but also Smith-Njigba (+500 odds). What’s happening here? Well, it’s a solid hedge to bet on both, as the Texans desperately need an instant-impact wideout.

That said, the Patriots are also a great hedge, with +650 odds to land Johnston and +600 odds to snag Smith-Njigba.

15) Green Bay Packers: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

There’s a tight four-man race to see who will be the first tight end drafted. Betting markets give Michael Mayer the second-best odds (+160), with Dalton Kincaid slightly ahead at +110. Statistically, the Packers have had a top-10 tight end only once in the last 11 seasons. They’re good bets to select their TE of the future — the question is, who?

16) Washington Commanders: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

The son of the famed four-time Pro Bowl linebacker by the same name, Joey Porter Jr. should have a bright NFL future. His +900 odds of being the first cornerback drafted place him well behind Gonzalez and Witherspoon.

17) Pittsburgh Steelers: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson

The Steelers middling defense still needs some work after a mixed free agency. Trenton Simpson is a deep long shot to be the first defender taken (+20000 odds), but a middle-of-the-first-round selection seems the most likely right now.

18) Detroit Lions: Brian Branch, S, Alabama

As referenced above, Detroit has shown a commitment this month to beef up its secondary. Brian Branch could be another key piece in a Super Bowl run (yes, I’m serious).

MORE: Detroit Lions Super Bowl Odds

Branch has +10000 odds of being the first defender drafted, as well as +2500 odds of being the first cornerback (where he qualifies in DraftKings Sportsbook). His odds probably should be even higher, given the unlikelihood of Detroit significantly trading up to get him.

19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

The post-Tom Brady era begins in earnest for a Buccaneers team that can still make noise in the relatively weak NFC South. But with the Falcons and Panthers rapidly rebuilding (and the Saints trying to make another big push), time is running out for a franchise that has a core of aging, exceptional talent.

Will Levis possesses +4000 odds of being the first QB taken. If he does go first, it would be an even greater shock than those odds suggest.

FanDuel also highlights the Bucs as the No. 3 most-favored team to land Levis (+600 odds), trailing the Colts and Raiders.

20) Seattle Seahawks: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

Bryan Bresee is part of a laundry list of players with +10000 odds of being the first defender drafted. Even if the Seahawks trade up, it’ll more likely be because another defensive lineman falls.

However, it is intriguing to see that the most-selected players for the Seahawks are defensive tackles. It seems unlikely that Seattle spends two first-round picks on the same position, but MDS users believe they will target at least one in this round. Whether that’s targeting the likes of Wilson or Murphy at 6 and then Bresee at 20, or Carter at 6 and someone else at 20 is yet to be seen.

21) Los Angeles Chargers: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Well, this is a loaded pick. With Austin Ekeler teetering on leaving the Chargers, and with no running back currently available to step in and fill such a gaping hole, L.A. becomes an intriguing destination for the presumed No. 1 incoming rookie RB. Interestingly, Bijan Robinson has +20000 odds of being the first overall pick.

DraftKings also highlights the Commanders as the most likely destination for Robinson, with +400 odds. But the Chargers are close behind at No. 2 with +500 odds. As L.A. assesses whether to try moving up in the draft (e.g. ahead of Washington), we should keep these close odds in mind.

22) Baltimore Ravens: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee

Jalin Hyatt possesses +650 odds of being the first WR drafted, placing him in the back of a crowded group of five front-runners. Zay Flowers is narrowly ahead at +600, while Smith-Njigba remains the clear top choice with -130 odds.

23) Minnesota Vikings: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia

Kelee Ringo‘s odds of being the first cornerback drafted are +5000. In other words, he makes sense at this current spot that MDS users have him in.

24) Jacksonville Jaguars: O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida

A pretty interesting spot for O’Cyrus Torrence, at least from a betting perspective. Torrence’s odds of being the first OL drafted are +6000, which stand well behind Skoronski and Johnson, as well as Jones. But more than that, he’s also far behind Darnell Wright and Anton Harrison in betting markets — and we haven’t seen Wright or Harrison come up yet.

25) New York Giants: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Zay Flowers (+600 odds) is packed tightly between Addison (+550) and Hyatt (+650) as relative long shots to be the first WR taken, comfortably behind front-runners Smith-Njigba and Johnston.

26) Dallas Cowboys: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

The odds of Jahmyr Gibbs going No. 1 overall are +25000, only slightly bit behind Robinson. Of course, we’re not focused so much on first overall with these guys. We’re focused more on which teams will lunge for a high-upside RB.

I actually think Dallas is more likely to trade up to snag Robinson. But regardless, they’re in a prime position to find their running back of the future. As great as Tony Pollard has been, he doesn’t profile as a bell cow.

FanDuel also highlights the Cowboys as one of four front-runners to draft Gibbs, with all four teams netting +700 odds. If Dallas plans to take him here, then one of the other three squads (Bengals, Bills, and Chiefs) clearly would need to trade up.

27) Buffalo Bills: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia

There’s still no Dalton Kincaid sighting, despite his status as the betting markets’ most likely No. 1 TE drafted with +110 odds. Darnell Washington has the third-best odds (+350), suggesting that Kincaid’s absence might be surprising but not entirely shocking. The betting markets definitely seem to be more bullish on Kincaid than our MDS users are.

28) Cincinnati Bengals: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

Anton Harrison possesses +1800 odds of being the first offensive lineman taken. While the betting markets view this mostly as a two-man battle between Skoronski and Johnson, Harrison’s odds suggest he cannot be completely ignored.

29) New Orleans Saints (From SF via MIA via DEN): Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

Another member of the +10000 crew — guys with +10000 odds of being the first defender drafted. Lukas Van Ness joins seven other guys at this spot, which is far behind Will Anderson.

30) Philadelphia Eagles: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

See directly above. Nolan Smith has the same +10000 odds. The Eagles are a logical landing spot as they seek to maintain an elite defense for another Super Bowl push.

31) Kansas City Chiefs: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State

The final pick of the first round. Dawand Jones carries +7500 odds of being the first offensive lineman drafted.

It’s important to note that Darnell Wright (+600 odds of being the first offensive lineman drafted) hasn’t made an appearance in the current MDS data. With respect to betting markets, his absence is arguably tied with that of Kincaid as the most surprising.

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Hooper cashed in on his 2019 breakout in Atlanta, signing a four-year, $42 million contract last offseason with the Browns. He played the same number of games and only 40 fewer snaps his first season in Cleveland, but the switch from a pass-first offense to a run-first offense left him with 187 fewer routes and 27 fewer targets. Hooper was actually targeted on a higher percentage of his routes in 2020 than in 2019, but he fell from 8.1 YPT to 6.2, despite dropping only two passes and having nearly the same average depth of target (6.5, 6.4) both seasons. While it’s fair to expect an efficiency rebound of some degree in Hooper’s second season working with QB Baker Mayfield and coach Kevin Stefanski, the problem of target volume is still a big one, especially if TEs Harrison Bryant and David Njoku both remain on the roster and WR Odell Beckham returns healthy from ACL surgery.

Hooper’s 2019 explosion in Atlanta set the stage for a record-setting contract from the Browns, establishing a top of the market for tight ends with a $10.5 million average annual value and $18.5 million guaranteed. While Hooper, who runs a 4.72 40, is no athletic match for the likes of George Kittle and Travis Kelce, he should be a useful target on short and intermediate passes for Baker Mayfield. The No. 1 overall pick is hoping to rebound from a sophomore slump, surrounded by a new coaching staff in an offense loaded with name-brand weapons. The 25-year-old Hooper will make the team better, but we can’t ignore how his 2019 production largely occurred when the Falcons were in catch-up mode, often against defenses focused on mitigating Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Hooper produced 62 percent of his yardage and five of his six TDs after halftime, and he averaged 79.6 yards and 9.9 YPT in seven losses, compared to 38.3 yards and 5.6 YPT in six wins (he also missed three games with an MCL sprain). Even amidst a breakout season, only two of Hooper’s 75 receptions came on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield. In Cleveland, the presence of Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and fellow tight end David Njoku will make it difficult for opponents to focus on Hooper, potentially helping his efficiency but also leaving him as a long shot to match last year’s 7.5 targets per game. The question now is whether Hooper can do more with less.

Improvement isn’t always linear with fantasy commodities, but Hooper had steady improvement in Season 3, bumping his catch rate, receptions and touchdowns to career highs while tying for seventh in TE targets. The key to getting the plausible upside of Hooper is grasping when the Falcons use him. He was tied for third in inside-the-10 targets at the position, and only Travis Kelce had more looks inside the 5-yard line. Hooper also had a pair of two-point conversions (one in the playoffs); while they’re only a deuce on the scoreboard, they could point to more touchdown upside in subsequent seasons. The Falcons certainly have a gaggle of imposing downfield weapons in their passing game, but perhaps Hooper will remain a primary option when space gets tight around the goal line. Add it all up and Hooper makes sense for fantasy owners who want to be budget-conscious at tight end without going completely into a punt formation.

Hooper had some things moving in the right direction last year – more games, more starts, more snaps and more targets. His YPC dropped almost four yards, despite a glorious 88-yard catch-and-run touchdown against the Bears in Week 1. Hooper only scored twice the rest of the season and didn’t have another reception longer than 24 yards or a game with more than 50 yards. After finishing with nine straight outings (including playoffs) catching three or fewer passes for no more than 38 yards, Hooper’s case for a Year 3 breakout took a hit when the Falcons drafted WR Calvin Ridley in Round 1. The Falcons also didn’t consider Hooper much in the playoffs, giving him just six targets in two games (4-18-0). That sounds like someone who should be forced to play his way onto our rosters in September, not someone we should proactively draft in August.

The Falcons brought Hooper along at a gradual pace during his rookie year as he only had three games with more than three targets. But there were occasional highlights — an 84-yard spike at Oakland, a snappy touchdown at Tampa Bay on national television and a score in the Super Bowl. With Jacob Tamme not expected back, Hooper likely will enter Week 1 as the starter, or at least as the top pass catcher at TE. Stanford has produced a number of NFL starting tight ends in recent years, with Hooper another one to feel good about. He checks the pedigree box — a third-round pick in 2016 — and he doesn’t turn 23 until late October. Atlanta’s offense is built around matchups and spreading the ball around, but Hooper has plenty of room for growth in his second season. He belongs on everyone’s potential-breakout list.

Hooper was selected by the Falcons in the third round of the 2016 NFL Draft, and the team hopes he can help bolster a position that’s been a point of weakness since Tony Gonzalez retired. He comes into a clustered-yet-unimpressive situation alongside Jacob Tamme and Levine Toilolo, who combined for just 66 receptions, 701 yards and one touchdown in 2015. The Falcons clearly have plans for Hooper if they were willing to take a chance on him in the third round, but it seems like they’ll roll with Tamme at the beginning of the season. Toilolo is more of a blocking tight end, so Hooper could see some work in clear passing situations should they opt for some double-tight end sets.